Archive for the ‘Voting Systems’ Category

More on the Angus-Reid Poll

Tuesday, April 12th, 2011

The Angus-Reid poll I mentioned yesterday, puts “Yes” to AV ahead by 53% to 47%. It also includes national voting intention numbers:

CON 31, LAB 42, LD 11

Political Betting suggests that the cross-tabs allow us to distinguish between voters who voted Labour in the general election and those who have switched recently from the Liberal Democrats. If this is true, and they look like a distinct group, I wonder what the national voting intention really tells us, and if it tells us anything about voting in the council elections in May. I can think of three possibilities:

  1. The move to Labour is disaffection with us joining a coalition with the Tories (terminology alert; I usually say Conservatives, so the semiotics matter) but they would still naturally vote for us
  2. The move to Labour is a return to their natural party (i.e. the swing towards us was disaffection with Labour!)
  3. The group that has moved towards Labour is largely in the ABC1 social group, which leans “Yes to AV”, rather than C2DE (which is “No to AV” by 60% to 40%)

If 2) is true, then things could be very bad for us in May, so I hope instead that 1) is true and most will still vote Liberal Democrat. I think 3) is orthogonal and describes the composition of the group rather than saying anything about motives and likely voting patterns.

An interesting observation

Monday, April 11th, 2011

Over on Political Betting, Mike Smithson discusses the latest Angus Reid poll on AV and notes:

Another trend is that those Lib Dem voters from the general election who have switched to Labour appear to have helped boost YES.

Amongst current Labour voters YES has a comfortable lead while amongst those who voted for Brown’s party last May NO is ahead.

It makes me wonder about the durability of the swing from the Liberal Democrats to Labour.

#Yes2AV tweets

Wednesday, April 6th, 2011

For fun, I thought I’d see if I could come up with a list of tweets that are either funny (or not given how bad I am at jokes) or explain something about AV:

  • #Yes2AV To vote, rank them in order. To count, successively re-allocate the smallest pile until you have a winner. A simple as 1-2-3!
  • #Yes2AV In a 4 horse race that goes 3 rounds before you get a winner, everyone gets 3 votes. But remember, a horse still wins
  • Moat cleaner required? Then just vote NO! #Yes2AV

I’m sure you can come up with better than these!